ON Monday, or May 11, the House of Representatives is to approve the Articles of Impeachment, which the House Committee on Justice, chaired by Rep. Jinky Luistro of Batangas, has ironed out over the last four months. An overwhelming majority of its 316 members areto approve it, leading to a single conclusion – Vice President Sara Duterte will be impeached for the second time. The 1987 Constitution requires only a third of the House members, or 106, but at least 215 members are to vote for her second impeachment.
Upon its official approval by the House in a plenary session, the Articles of Impeachment will go to the Senate for appropriate action. Senate President Tito Sotto has signified his intention to convene immediately the Senate as an impeachment court to hold trial of the Vice President, who evaded the invitation by the Luistro committee to appear personally and explain her side in its previous committee hearings to determine the sufficiency in form and substance and the third one – “probable cause” – of the two impeachment complaints that have prospered there.
Based on the senators’ statements, at least three scenarios are certain:
First, certain senators mainly from the opposition, or pro-Sara camp- will do every way possible to stop and derail the initiative to convene the Senate as an impeachment court. This includes a revamp of the Senate leadership. They will raise obstacles like legal questions and technicalities to stop the Senate as the impeachment court. This is expected to happen immediately upon the submission of the Articles of Impeachment.
Second, the moment the Senate meets as an impeachment court, certain or pro-Sara senators intend to raise legal impediments to stop the presentation of the pieces of evidence culled by the Luistro committee before the subsequent trial. This is obstruction of justice, plain and simple, but who among the opposition senators understand it? Their limited understanding of the law will allow them to do what is impossible, expedient, and unimaginable just to please the recalcitrant Vice President.
Third, if ever the impeachment trial proceeds to its conclusion, where, in the process of the impeachment trial, pieces of evidence are brought out and Sara Duterte undergoes intense cross examination, certain opposition senators will acquit her at the end. They regard her acquittal as most vital to enable her to run for president in 2028. Besides, they always believe that it will not be easy to get the vote of two-third of all senators, or 16, to convict her of the charges under the Articles of Impeachment.
The current Senate is different from the previous one because it does not have Chiz Escudero as its Senate President. Chiz resorted to the distorted interpretation of the word “forthwith” in the 1987 Constitution to derail and stop the Vice President’s impeachment trial in 2025. The current top honcho, Senate President Tito Sotto has more than 20 years of experience as senator and he is highly regarded as level headed. Unlike the tricky and manipulative Chiz Escudero, Sotto is too decent to the point that he would not resort to legal niceties to distort an important issue like the Vice President’s impeachment trial.
Moreover, the current Senate has a clear demarcation line between the pro-Sara senators and the ones who do not support her. The pro-Sara senators would not hesitate to distort law to stop her impeachment trial. They are Chiz Escudero, Joel Villanueva, Jinggoy Estrada, Bato dela Rosa, and Bong Go, Robin Padilla, Imee Marcos, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Rodente Marcoleta.
Recent events portend what could be regarded as efforts to frustrate the political will to bring the impeachment issue to its rightful conclusion. The Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) cult, through some big and minor functionaries like Marcoleta and some unscrupulous vloggers, has been portrayed as behind the reported efforts to coerce and intimidate senators supporting the impeachment efforts. True or not, it does not project a wholesome image for guys like Marcoleta, who is inclined to circumvent the letter and spirit of the law to project his political agenda. Even Alan Peter Cayetano resorted to this unpalatable tactic.
Puerile Robin Padilla likewise resorted to his much maligned barbershop philosophy by arguing that, as an opposition senator, his job was to stop the impeachment trial, earning the rebuke of colleagues who told him that he was stupid for not knowing his job as an opposition lawmaker. Even Imee Marcos, the estranged sister of BBM, earned brickbats for her irresponsible, not well thought, statements on the impeachment trial.
Chiz Escudero was quiet on the impeachment trial. The speculation was that he faces plunder charges at the Office of the Ombudsman, the head of which, Boying Remulla, is not sympathetic to his manipulative ways. Very recently, the Ombudsman handed down a hold departure order against Chiz, virtually stopping his annual summer vacation in Europe to be with his alleged extravagant wife, Heart Evangelista. His two acolytes in the Senate – the plunderous Joel Villanueva and the equally plunderous Jinggoy Estrada have clamped down, raising serious questions on their stance and votes in the impeachment trial.
Given their precarious situation, where they face political demise and extinction, Chiz and his acolytes are seen to quietly negotiate for their political survival. But the compensation appears daunting. They are to distance themselves from Sara and vote for her removal from office and her perpetual disqualification for public office. Despite their pride, they are to cave in. They have no choices.
Bato dela Rosa and Bong Go have different stories. Bato has been hiding since November last year after the Ombudsman leaked the information that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against him. Since then, Bato has not been seen publicly and totally ran away from his job as a lawmaker. Unless he is arrested, Bato is to continue this stance for the entire duration of the impeachment trial.
Bong Go has a different story. While he was the chief funder of Rodrigo Duterte’s failed war on drugs, no arrest warrant has been issued by the ICC against him. But he faces P6 billion plunder charges filed last year by Sonny Trillanes. These developments could lead to a major change in his support of the Vice President.
In brief, these pro-Sara carry enormous burdens that could have telling effects on how they would face the impeachment trial of the Vice President. Moreover, it is anticipated that no matter how they oppose the trial, the pieces of evidence collected by the Luistro Committee would come out in the open impeachment trial. They do not possess the legal acumen and savvy to oppose them. They are lightweights and the evidence is mostly “smoking gun evidence.” The pro-Sara senators are not exactly gifted to counter them.
The other camp has the legal arguments to push for her impeachment trial. They have the letters of the 1987 Constitution on their side. It is not easy to run against the Constitution, This is their argument.
There is another point that the pro-Sara camp senators have to understand. The Rules of the Senate as an impeachment court requires them to exercise political neutrality, which seems to be alien to them. Given their outspoken ways to unnecessarily push the pro-Sara Sara agenda, these senators run the risk of disqualifying themselves if they continue talking.
If ever those pieces of evidence are openly admitted in the Senate impeachment court and the Vice President undergoes intense cross examination, the specter of a guilty verdict is not far behind. A non guilty verdict could lead to disastrous consequences. The public would view it as a sellout and senators who will vote for a not guilty decision would be seen to have been coopted and bought. Billions of pesos could have changed hands.
Will a massive but popular mass uprising be far behind? An EDSA People Power 4 is a likely scenario. This will be most disastrous for the Senate and its existence and relevance will be put under serious question. Meanwhile, BBM is not making any move. He is not issuing statements. He does not have to.
